Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Plus

296

Ṁ110k

Jan 21

0.4%

chance

ALL

resolving Jan 20, 2025

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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1,000

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3.00

25 Comments

201 Holders

960 Trades

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Resolved early; description explicitly says "resolving Jan 20, 2025". The electors haven't even voted yet!

@NcyRocks Thanks! Unresolved.

@AndrewG Whoops! My bad 😅

@AndrewG Too low IMHO. The electors will do the right thing

More celebrities winning presidential elections

fk when you have no and buy 100$ worth of yes it actually sells the no automatically

@DeanValentine no actually I'm just retarded

predictedNO

@DeanValentine Well it does do that. 1 NO share plus 1 YES share always equals M$1, so there'd be no reason someone would want to hold both. If you buy one type of share while holding the other, they'll cancel out and return you mana.

(betting on rugpull, not Dwayne Johnson winning)

predictedNO

I created a derivative market: https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us "Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?"

predictedNO

@M you mean https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo-637c1bad64bd

predictedNO

@JiSK ops, thanks for providing the correct link!

Based on the creator’s bio and other information, pretty worried they’re not going to resolve this right. Obviously Dwayne Johnson won’t win.

Not selling because I think this has even 1% chance of happening, I just needed the liquidity for things that had higher rate of return due to resolving sooner. Anyone who isn't already 20 NO in this market can get "free" money by buying that with their loan, presuming good resolution. It's just two years out.

* "more than 5%" should read "more like 5%"

Can you explain why you think it's more than 5% that The Rock will smell what the White House chef is cooking? I made this market as a test of the resilience of play-money prediction markets, because I personally can't understand why anyone would give credence to them....

I think the correct odds are closer to 5% than 15%. But definitely higher than 1%.

I created https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo to ask is this market going to be resolved correctly

The real uncertainty here is on this market resolving correctly.

fails

heads

My god, how is this at 19% now? Buying some NO that I can sell if needed once it gets back down to like 1%.

Maybe someone using it to transfer money between accounts? Or there is a derivative market I don't see? Or someone YOLOing M$ 1717?

@Blume: I'd expect it's because of the new loans feature?

Why is this market active all of a sudden?

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