Which of @Mira 's Twitter follower market designs will be most actively traded?
Which of @Mira 's Twitter follower market designs will be most actively traded?
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Ṁ3696Jan 1
1.3%
Linked(log scale): https://manifold.markets/Mira/how-many-twitter-followers-will-mir
0.5%
Linked(linear scale): https://manifold.markets/Mira/how-many-twitter-followers-will-mir-4b950f7dd56a
2%Other
I am testing how popular different market designs are. This meta-market resolves to which of the other markets has the most traders at end of 2024.
I may add new market designs as I think of them.
If you are an author of an arbitrage bot, you may want to try arbitraging these markets since there will be free money on the less-traded ones.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Now we need a version of this market which uses softmax, so they you can have a meta-meta-market using at least binary and maybe BCE, strange loop it from there. I think you should be in line for infinity trading bonuses?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
How many Twitter followers will @Mira have? (linked, linear, 2024)
How many markets will @Mira create in 2024?
How many Twitter followers will @Mira have? (unlinked)
How many Twitter followers will @Mira have? (linked, log, 2024)
The market with the most traders at the end of 2024 will be of what type?