Use A-Z sort for this market!
Add CEOs to the list in the format "Name - Company - Year". If there's an existing entry and you want a later year, please copy it.
Each answer with that name resolves YES if they quit their jobs; NO if the end of the year is reached with them remaining CEO.
Example: Mark Zuckerberg is CEO January 1, 2025 will resolve "Mark Zuckerberg - META - 2024" NO.
Example: Mark Zuckerberg quits on December 31, 2023 but rejoins January 2, 2024. Then his 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 answers would all resolve YES from that small employment gap.
Answers must be currently CEO or announced to be CEO as of a certain soon date.
Options will be NA'd if they break the A-Z sort by not exactly matching the previous entry.
NA if the year is later than 3 years or later into the future, since we have a 100 answers limit.
I will ask admins to increase the active answer limit or add answer groupings if it becomes an issue, since I would like to see the CEO firing curve all in one place.
If the company is dissolved, resolves YES.
If the company merges or is acquired, resolves YES if the person is no longer CEO of a new company(even if it's a subsidiary). Otherwise, answer is edited to refer to the new company.
If a company changes its name, answer is edited to refer to the new name but stays unresolved.
1,000
3.00@mods (mira deleted account, will need mod resolution). James can resolve YES for 2024. He left his role as Manifold CEO to work for Manicode during summer 2024 (example market discussing this), by September he had been replaced by SG as CEO. (I don't quite know how James is meant to resolve for 2025).
all of the other 2024 options can resolve NO.
@Ziddletwix (not for mods, but separately, IIUC Buffet won't cease being CEO until Jan 1 2026 so I think he's on track for a NO resolution here? even though his retirement was announced).
@Ziddletwix I have got to pay more attention and stop picking up pennies in front of steamrollers late at night. Good trade 😄
@Ziddletwix oh and re: 2025, I think that resolves “Yes” based on “Example: Mark Zuckerberg quits on December 31, 2023 but rejoins January 2, 2024. Then his 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 answers would all resolve YES from that small employment gap.”
@benmanns haha it happens! have very much been there. (maybe ought to have flagged it to you first, but i did also want the liquidity in the option itself—doesn't make up for it, but sent back the 1k mana as a refund to split the difference)
@josharian Jeff Bezos is not actually the CEO of Amazon. Andrew Jassy is.
So I've edited this option to Andrew Jassy.
@Gen I added those in. If they're the CEO of a new entity, answer stays unresolved. If they're no longer the CEO of even a subsidiary, then even if they still have a job it resolves YES.
@Gen Feature request: A-Z sort doesn't show the answers by default. For a market like this, I think a default view of "Top 10-15 filtered by highest probability sorted by A-Z" would be most useful. But also A-Z should show at least some answers without needing to expand them.
@Mira Thanks! I have submitted the A-Z hiding answers as a bug report
I also added:
Also a way more specific and probably more annoying thing to implement, but when someone is tagged "@James" it would be cool if it ignored the @ and sorted "@James" to "J" instead of first
and I added your comment about top10-15 filtered by higher prob sorted by A-Z.
@Mira Also from your description
Use A-Z sort for this market!
When you set the A-Z as default, it set it for everyone 😃 - only creators/mods/admins can update it