Will HKU5-CoV-2 reach 100 confirmed human cases in the US by EOY2025?
Will HKU5-CoV-2 reach 100 confirmed human cases in the US by EOY2025?
Plus
6
Ṁ60962026
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background
HKU5-CoV-2 is a newly discovered bat coronavirus identified by Chinese scientists that has demonstrated the ability to bind to human ACE2 receptors, similar to SARS-CoV-2. Currently, there are no reported human cases of HKU5-CoV-2.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if there are 100 or more confirmed human cases of HKU5-CoV-2 reported by credible health organizations (WHO, CDC, or equivalent national health authorities, if there is clear ballpark consensus) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve NO if fewer than 100 confirmed cases are reported by this deadline.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 2025
5% chance
Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will more than 100 people in NYC get Ebola in 2025?
4% chance
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
51% chance
Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?
53% chance
Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
4% chance
Will there be 1000 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
13% chance
Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will there be 500 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
22% chance