@Mikelon797
How does this resolve, in particular
1. If there is a new model but it is not made in Mexico?
2. Does it have to be a "next generation vehicle" to count?
3. Does it have to be named "model 2"?
4. What if there isn't a whole new model but there is just a cheaper version model Y or something like that? Does that count or only if it is called model 2 or ... ?

The latest speculation is that there is to be a cheaper "decontented" version of the model Y

https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1900300384796590258
The Chinese news site 36kr published a report today about Tesla’s plan to launch a stripped-down version of the Model Y in China. This seems to be the cheaper model Elon has been referring to, which means Tesla doesn’t have a new model to launch after all.

https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1900338816054940008
"1. The article looks credible
...
5. Elon’s comment at the last Annual Shareholder Meeting likely refers to the stripped-down Model Y because he seemed to anticipate that people wouldn’t like the idea, knowing it could cheapen the brand: "So obviously, we’ve got some new products that we’re working on under the covers, and I think these are going to be pretty special. Some of them, I think people maybe at first may think, 'Oh, it’s not going to be that amazing,' but just wait. It will be." "

(There was also
Vaibhav Taneja -- Chief Financial Officer
q4 2024 earnings call
"We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our lineup from there." )

Anyway just a cheaper "decontented" version of model Y rather than a whole new model seems credible because this seems to fit with cancelled redwood project, no prototypes noticed, and the only next generation platform vehicle being the robotaxi and other aspects Troy Teslike points out (as linked above).

I guess we will see whether this is true, but clarity on how you would resolve this question re interpreting what is meant by model 2 (my 4 questions at top of this post) would be helpful towards knowing how to trade on this question.

I expect there is some grain of truth to this that makes it unlikely they ship model 2 in 2025 - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-scraps-low-cost-car-plans-amid-fierce-chinese-ev-competition-2024-04-05/

counterargument: gabe holds YES shares (jk but ty for sharing the article)

Reuters, June 2025: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-plans-build-new-electric-vehicles-mid-2025-sources-2024-01-24/

How will this event resolve if Tesla releases a new model of car by EoY 2025 but does not name it "Model 2"? For instance, I've seen the name "Model Q" thrown around. Or they could brand it as a new series of Model 3, kind of like there is a Model S, and a Model S Plaid.

@pietrokc the name is irrelevant, that is why it is in quotes. What matters is the price point and manufacturing improvements, etc...

How will this event resolve if Tesla delivers, say, 1-5 Model 2s to celebrities, and then everybody else has to wait several weeks or months?

@pietrokc to YES

they’re installing the manufacturing requirement right now. They will 100% begin deliveries before the end of 2025. They have been quiet about the progress so people don’t delay purchase of current vehicles

@Mikelon797 Description says expected to be manufactured in Mexico. That’s true, but it will first be manufactured in Austin. Just making sure Austin made cars still resolve yes?

@GabeGarboden yes yes, the mexico thing was at the time. The main thing is that the car is released.

Thanks for the question :)

the one thing i’m sure about is tesla not delivering on time

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