I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.
To address survivorship bias, if the musical never happens, I will ask the creators why not. If they say that they cancelled it because it was going to be too hard to make it any good, I will resolve NO. If it was shelved for any other reason, I will resolve N/A.
THE FINE PRINT:
When summing results of multiple polls I will weigh the two equally, not in proportion to # of respondents.
I will ask people to rate it from 1-5 stars and resolve YES if there are more 4s and 5s than 1s and 2s.
I will sell any shares I own before market close to ensure the polling process is unbiased.
1,000
3.00I'd fill your entire limit order, but I feel that asking the most diehard fans of Scott Alexander if the musical based on his book is "good" might be a tiny bit biased in favor of "yes".
Imho asking normal theatre audiences and SSC-sourced audiences about their opinion on the musical would have a significant difference - at least 15% approval difference.
i'm sure it would still be good without this, but a lot of the best moments of the story are just narrator Aaron going on an insane rant about kabbalistic connections, which i don't think translates well to a non literary medium.
@SemioticRivalry And it's so long! I feel like maybe a one-act about the alternate history of the universe could work? I thought the political interludes were fun
finding lots of kabbalistic connections between things seems like something that it would be very easy to set to music.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00