Like I said a month ago, all of the doom markets trend down over time.

All of these doom markets seem to trend down over time, presumably because of normal people signing up for Manifold, as well as the obvious fact that doom continues to not have happened.

So even with his NA resolution, it seems virtually certain it will be lower.

Does a single percent point count, or will you add some tolerance for noise?

@Vincent Yes, single percent point will count. I'm open to hearing arguments why it shouldn't.

@Metastable Either way is fine. The difference is how certain you can be it's a real change in opinion, rather than in translation from opinion to estimate. Then again, I'd be hard pressed to set a non-arbitrary tolerance.

I'll bet on the opinion change regardless.