From https://metaculus.com/questions/16705/spacex-launch-vs-non-launch-revenue/
SpaceX generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its Starlink satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue.
Payload Space, a well-known source for space industry analytics, has developed a methodology for estimating SpaceX's revenue details and consistently publishes updates. Their February 2023 report estimated SpaceX's 2022 revenue as follows:
$2.4 billion from launch
$1.87 billion from Starlink services
$325 million from other sources
Payload Space's 2023 projections estimate Starlink revenue exceeding Launch revenue:
$5.265 billion from launch (projected)
$5.462 billion from Starlink (projected)
$825 million from other sources
1,000
3.00https://payloadspace.com/estimating-spacexs-2024-revenue/
Also Grok says
"Based on the latest available estimates as of April 2, 2025, SpaceX’s launch revenue did not exceed its non-launch revenue in 2024. Here’s the breakdown derived from industry analyses:
SpaceX’s total revenue for 2024 is estimated at $13.1 billion, according to Payload’s January 29, 2025, report. This figure is widely cited and aligns with other projections, such as Sacra’s $14.2 billion estimate, though I’ll use Payload’s more detailed breakdown for consistency:
Launch Revenue: Payload estimates SpaceX earned $4.2 billion from launch services. This includes 134 Falcon launches (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy), with 45 customer missions (commercial, government, and crewed) generating revenue, while 89 Starlink-dedicated launches are considered zero-revenue internally. At an average of $67 million per Falcon 9 customer launch and $130 million per Falcon Heavy (adjusted for expendable missions like ViaSat), plus $620 million from NASA’s HLS payments, this totals approximately $4.2 billion.
Non-Launch Revenue: The remaining revenue comes from non-launch sources, primarily Starlink, with additional contributions from other contracts. Payload pegs Starlink at $8.2 billion, driven by 4.6 million subscribers (doubling from 2.3 million in 2023) at an average revenue per user (ARPU) of about $85/month domestically and lower internationally. Additionally, “other revenue” (e.g., NASA spacesuits, in-orbit refueling tech, and Starshield) adds $720 million, bringing non-launch revenue to $8.9 billion ($8.2B + $0.72B).
Comparing these:
Launch Revenue: $4.2 billion
Non-Launch Revenue: $8.9 billion
Non-launch revenue significantly outpaces launch revenue—$8.9 billion versus $4.2 billion—meaning launch revenue did not exceed non-launch revenue in 2024. Starlink’s explosive growth (95% year-over-year per Nasdaq, February 8, 2025) is the key driver, shifting SpaceX from a launch-centric company to one where satellite internet dominates financially. Launch revenue grew 19% from $3.5 billion in 2023 (Payload), but non-launch revenue, especially Starlink, surged faster.
These numbers are estimates, as SpaceX is private and doesn’t release official financials. Payload’s figures are lower than some forecasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s $15 billion total for 2024, from November 2023), but their detailed 2024 retrospective aligns with observed launch cadence and Starlink subscriber trends. Even if launch revenue were underestimated—say, closer to Sacra’s $5.5 billion—non-launch revenue (Starlink at $7.7B plus other sources) would still exceed it at over $8 billion. Thus, the evidence strongly suggests SpaceX’s non-launch revenue surpassed its launch revenue in 2024."
So non launch revenue roughly double launch revenue in 2024 and even in 2023 non launch revenue larger $4.2bn vs $3.5Bn.
Seems like that ought to be enough to resolve this yes? (Though metaculus market remains closed not resolved.) @dglid
