DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (No) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050
Basic
1
Ṁ12050
49%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@JoshuaWilkes Ah. I may leave this up to the bot in case that messes with it - the metaculus question on whether the DPP won hasn't resolved yet.
@chrisjbillington that's a bit weird - maybe they are waiting until the inauguration but so far as I know there is no reason to do that
@JoshuaWilkes Agreed here, will await resolution of underlying market first. Quick link for future reference: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14657/2024-taiwan-presidential-election/
It looks like whoever made it (quite reasonably) didn't feel confident they understood the period between the election and inauguration so they just set it to resolve after the latter.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (Yes) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050
49% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
21% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
20% chance
Will Taiwan be Taiwan in 2025?
88% chance
Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the DPP run on a platform to maintain the status quo in Cross-Strait Relations?
75% chance
Will China go to war with Taiwan before the DPP loses the Taiwanese presidency
39% chance
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
50% chance
Will China control Taiwan in 2040?
50% chance
Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will any 'Green' party, except the DPP, win seats in the 2028 Legislative Election?
55% chance