Self-replicating space probes, also known as von Neumann probes, are hypothetical spacecraft designed to autonomously explore and utilize resources from celestial bodies to replicate themselves. The creation of a self-replicating probe could revolutionize space exploration by enabling the rapid exploration of the cosmos without the need for constant resource replenishment from Earth. However, the development of a fully functional, self-replicating space probe remains a significant engineering challenge, and the timeframe for achieving this goal is uncertain.

Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources from celestial bodies to create replicas of itself be created before January 1st, 2040?

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st 2040, a self-replicating space probe is publicly and credibly documented to have been created, as evidenced by:

1. The successful development of a space probe with the following capabilities:

   a. Autonomous navigation and decision-making, allowing the probe to explore celestial bodies and identify suitable locations for resource extraction and replication.

   b. Resource extraction and utilization, enabling the probe to harvest materials and energy from celestial bodies, such as asteroids, moons, or planets, and convert them into the necessary components for replication.

   c. Self-replication, allowing the probe to create functional replicas of itself using the harvested materials and energy, without any direct intervention from Earth.

   d. Communication with Earth, providing regular updates on the probe's status, location, and findings.

2. The successful demonstration of the probe's self-replication capabilities in a controlled environment, such as:

   a. A terrestrial laboratory, where the probe can replicate itself using simulated extraterrestrial resources.

   b. A test mission to a nearby celestial body, such as the Moon or an asteroid, where the probe can demonstrate its capabilities in a real-world environment.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

1. A publicly accessible report or documentation detailing the methods, technologies, and processes used for the design, construction, and operation of the self-replicating space probe.

2. Independent validation of the results by at least two separate entities with expertise in space exploration, robotics, or related fields. These entities can be research groups, institutions, or companies.

3. The confirmation of the probe's successful self-replication, either through direct observation (e.g., by telescopes, cameras, or other monitoring equipment) or through the receipt of verifiable data transmitted by the probe or its replicas.

I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts.