Will we have at least ONE colony in space by 2050?
Will we have at least ONE colony in space by 2050?
Plus
26
Ṁ7512050
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This means any colonies, either on a planet or not.
This does not include the ISS but any settlements meant for long-term living.
A satellite around Earth, meant for living and working for long periods, would also count, along with colonies on any celestial body or even just a colony drifting in space.
tl;dr: any colony that's in space, by 2050.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
24% chance
Will we set a new record for number of people in space by mid 2025?
37% chance
Will there be a martian colony by 2050?
39% chance
Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?
31% chance
Will there be space wars by 2050
34% chance
Will there be 50 Starships by 2050?
84% chance
Will there be 100 Starships by 2050?
69% chance
Will there be 20 Starships by 2050?
96% chance
Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?
33% chance
Will the mostly self-sufficient Moon colony exist by 2100?
44% chance