Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?
Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?
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Plus
16
Ṁ627
Dec 31
33%
chance

Top 8 Economies are fixed as US, China, Japan, Germany, India, UK, France, Canada. Live birth data as recorded here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-birth-rate?tab=chart&time=2016..2021&country=DEU~USA~GBR~CAN~FRA~CHN~IND~JPN (or going direct to the UN data OWID currently uses; World Bank is a third back up, but any change must happen within one data set).

Example: Canada's births per-1000 was at its lowest in 2019 at 9.74; if Canada's rate meets or exceeds 10.23 (9.74*1.05) in any year up to and including 2025, this market resolves yes. Only one of the countries needs to realize the increase, and it does not need to be sustained in following years (i.e. a one year spike to 10.25 in 2024, followed by a collapse to 9.69 in 2025 still resolves yes).

Current low points that count (these could change with further declines by 2024): US (10.94); China (7.63); Japan (6.57); Germany (9.14); India (16.42); UK (10.08); France (10.50); Canada (9.74).

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