Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released. I will not bet in this market. Resolves based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9).
For reference, the Trump shooter would have been "indiscernible."
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Political lean will be judged on the US political spectrum.
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Transgender identity is not a political lean and is not necessarily sufficient on its own to determine resolution.
Pro-Palestinian activism alone is not inherently sufficient to determine political lean, but could have the potential to.
Additional evidence beyond these attributes will be required to resolve.
Update 2025-09-11 (PST) : If a culprit is arrested, but there's widespread likelihood that they're not the real perpetrator, this will only resolve if I'm 90% sure they got the right guy, and may resolve "no culprit caught" otherwise.
If their political lean is too wrapped up in, say, state-sponsorship, being a spy or secret agent, some baffling edge case like that, this will probably resolve "indiscernible."
1,000
3.00We're in a volatile information space. It's important that we allow there to be things to settle a bit. We need time for information to be released, be confirmed, and be verified for accuracy. People can be wrong, and have been already over the course of the last few days. Any evidence we see right now, even from seemingly trustworthy sources, may turn out to be bullshit the day after. As a result, no matter how damning the evidence one way or another, this market will not resolve for at least one week (9/18), so that an understanding of the shooter (or at least a narrative surrounding the understanding of the shooter) can coalesce.
My plan with this market is to keep it open until the close date, but I reserve the right to resolve this market sometime after 9/18 if something I deem blatantly obvious enough to warrant a resolution comes out and is borne out to be true, such as leaked neo-nazi chat logs or a bafflingly nonpartisan luigi-style manifesto (This feels unlikely, but not impossible).
@JoeuyLZ I mostly trust a prediction market user on this sort of stuff. Like I trust the rationalist autistic transwomen/AGP/M2Fs in the rationalist community to be principled and support free speech and oppose shutting down debate on trans issues.
@JoeuyLZ You're betting based on what is plainly stated to be a subjective market with a subjective resolution, that's correct. Bet accordingly. Welcome to prediction markets!
Some Trump-critical snark. Gotta be a lefty.
@EricBolton At this point, “Groyper/right-wing” looks inconsistent with the evidence. The only live branches are:
– Left (if the motive was ideological: anti-Kirk on gender/“anti-fascist” lines).
– Center/indiscernible (if the motive reduces to personal/identity without coherent politics).
Right doesn’t fit the observed signals.
https://www.axios.com/2025/09/13/kirk-suspect-transgender-roommate
Authorities are investigating whether Tyler Robinson, suspected of killing Charlie Kirk, believed Kirk's views on gender identity were "hateful" to people like Robinson's transgender roommate, six sources familiar with the case tell Axios.
Analysis via Claude:
</think>Start with demographic priors</think>
Looking at the demographic baseline for this profile:
- Washington/St. George Utah: Heavily Republican area (~70-80% GOP)
- 22-year-old white male: Nationally leans slightly right
- Mormon upbringing: Strongly associated with Republican voting (~80%+)
- Parents both registered Republicans: Strong family political influence
Initial Prior:
- Right: 75%
- Center/Unknown: 20%
- Left: 5%
</think>Unaffiliated registration, inactive voting</think>
The unaffiliated registration and lack of recent voting suggests political disengagement or rejection of mainstream parties. This could indicate:
- Libertarian leanings (still right-leaning)
- Political apathy
- Rejection of both parties
- Anti-establishment sentiment
After political disengagement:
- Right: 60%
- Center/Unknown: 35%
- Left: 5%
</think>Increasingly political recently</think>
Recent political engagement suggests something activated their interest - could be any direction depending on catalyst.
After increased engagement:
- Right: 55%
- Center/Unknown: 35%
- Left: 10%
</think>Dislikes Charlie Kirk</think>
Charlie Kirk is a prominent conservative activist/influencer. Disliking him could mean:
- Further right (thinks he’s not conservative enough)
- Center/left (opposes his views)
- Anti-establishment right (dislikes mainstream conservative figures)
After Charlie Kirk dislike:
- Right: 45%
- Center/Unknown: 30%
- Left: 25%
</think>Extremely online with specific phrases</think>
The online culture indicators are significant:
- “Bella ciao” - Italian resistance song, associated with anti-fascist movements
- Helldivers references with anti-fascist themes
- Furry community phrases - often associated with LGBTQ+ acceptance
- Gaming culture integration
This suggests left-leaning online spaces and anti-fascist sentiment.
After online culture analysis:
- Right: 20%
- Center/Unknown: 25%
- Left: 55%
</think>High intelligence, academic achievement</think>
Higher education and intelligence correlate with more liberal views, especially on social issues.
After intelligence factor:
- Right: 15%
- Center/Unknown: 25%
- Left: 60%
</think>Raised in gun family</think>
Gun familiarity could support either:
- Traditional conservative gun culture
- Left-wing gun ownership (increasing trend)
- Practical skill regardless of politics
After gun background:
- Right: 20%
- Center/Unknown: 25%
- Left: 55%
</think>Assassination of Charlie Kirk</think>
This is an extreme political act. The target (Charlie Kirk, conservative figure) combined with anti-fascist messaging suggests strong left-wing motivation.
After assassination:
- Right: 5%
- Center/Unknown: 10%
- Left: 85%
</think>Technical precision (430 ft, one shot)</think>
The precision and planning suggest ideological commitment rather than impulsive action.
</think>Engraved bullet with online phrases</think>
The specific engraving of anti-fascist and internet culture phrases on the bullet shows:
- Premeditation
- Strong ideological messaging
- Connection to online left-wing spaces
- Anti-fascist motivation
After message analysis:
- Right: 2%
- Center/Unknown: 8%
- Left: 90%
</think>Summary of key shifts</think>
Major probability shifts occurred at:
1. Online culture references (-25% right, +30% left)
1. Target selection and act itself (-15% right, +30% left)
1. Symbolic messaging on bullet (-3% right, +5% left)
The combination of anti-fascist messaging, target selection, and online culture strongly indicates left-wing political motivation despite conservative demographic background.
####
Final Assessment:
Left-leaning: 90%
The assassination of a prominent conservative figure, combined with anti-fascist messaging (“Bella ciao,” fascist references from Helldivers), online culture markers associated with progressive spaces, and the deliberate symbolic nature of the engraved bullet all strongly indicate left-wing political motivation.
Center/Unknown: 8%
Small possibility of purely anti-establishment motivation without clear left-right orientation, or mental health factors overriding coherent political framework.
Right-leaning: 2%
Minimal probability - would require the act to be motivated by Kirk not being conservative enough or some complex accelerationist strategy, which contradicts the anti-fascist messaging.
The most significant factors were the target selection, the specific anti-fascist cultural references, and the premeditated symbolic messaging, which collectively override the conservative demographic baseline. This appears to be a case of someone from a conservative background who adopted left-wing views and acted on extreme anti-fascist ideology.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy meditate deeply on what internal issues led you to post long chatbot output to a comments section.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy chatbot surprisingly better at Bayesian analysis than a lot of ppl on this market XD
OK back after hours of deep reflection and meditation
Are you suggesting that Manifold should
add a character limit?
ban AI generated comments?
add a dislike button since it’s seems you either disagree with the comment or dislike it (short attention span? The key parts were bolded anyways, and you could’ve skipped the step by step thinking, I just left it there for clarity)
FWIW, I ran the same prompt
GPT 5 Instant (x3 - averages to ~85/10/5)
GPT 5 thinking (used other sources as well: 45/35/20)
5 Thinking mini (90/2/8 using vibes, 71/28/0.4 using explicit Bayesian updates via Python code)
4o (80/15/5 or 70/20/10):
4.1 (75/20/5)
o3 (70/20/10)
o4-mini (80/10/10):
Grok 3 (90/5/5) - lol said 99.9/0.1/0 the 2nd time despite having 1/39/60 after 10 steps (seeing the conservative evidence, but it found the left evidence to update it completely the other way to near certainty)
Grok 4 (apparently it trusts unreliable X posts, no wonder it’s Mechahitler)
80/15/5
Gemini 2.5 Pro - refuses too much (98/2/0)
Gemini 2.5 Flash (89/10/1)
So the consensus of 20-30 LLMs is 80/14/6
I spent like an hour doing this lol, had nothing better to do I guess.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy Only reason center / indiscernable rationally > 14 is hedge against mod going squish (apologies @marnix). Why I'm lightly long center.
regarding the prompt
I was inspired by this paper on Chain of Draft prompting
https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.18600
Heavily leaning toward right-wing Groyper adjacent/chaos agent.
This person was terminally online and his beliefs are almost certainly written across many platforms on the internet. Discord has confirmed they handed over accounts associated with them - the FBI has them. If there was even a hint of leftist ideology/radicalization they would dump it immediately. We haven't seen or heard a single thing about his online activities.
Instead, we've learned he has or had a potentially trans roommate/partner. It is plausible that this person has radicalized him into this, but they immediately gave what they had to the FBI and is cooperating. This person's information is online and there is no sign or hint of radicalization or even interest in politics. It seems unlikely this person is the driver of any ideological motive. Not for nothing, this person's Steam account does not list the game (Helldivers) for which one of the inscribed memes was based on.
I can only conclude the FBI has nothing linking him to leftist belief or thought and they are releasing everything they can, while they can to shift the narrative towards a politically advantageous framing. It doesn't matter what is true in the end, it matters what people believe and felt at the time and this has been weaponized repeatedly.
@zsig I thought this group was right wing? They hate fascists, aren't homophobic, and are right wing?
@zsig I think you're mixing up Nick Fuentes, who I'm pretty sure is straight, with Milo Yiannopoulos, who was gay (but claims not to be anymore)
@Marnix Fuentes does claim to be straight but I have my doubts
My original comment was mostly in jest, he'd of course never admit to actually being gay, but there is an element of truth to the most chronically online far-right people also being gay, non-white, weebs, etc.