By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time? | Manifold

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

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Any proof that this is possible counts.

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Apple’s own on device models reach this threshold (benchmarking at qwen2.5, which seems comparable to gpt4o on lmarena)

https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/introducing-apple-foundation-models

Underpriced:Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025

Mistral Small seems similar in performance to GPT 3.5: https://mistral.ai/news/la-plateforme/

Should be a matter of days until someone runs it on their iPhone

It runs on a MacBook, fairly trivial to get ~3x gain in tflops and 3-10x gain in model performance over this window

predictedYES

https://twitter.com/simonw/status/1634635007712165888?s=46&t=7MQWoR0BbBi0qMI9dbdAwQ

Federated learning

Might happen much sooner than I expected

https://twitter.com/harmlessai/status/1626769581858758661?s=46&t=-aOs5vi8y_5tlqgbjNoRKA

predictedYES

As evidence in favour:

this type of advance in making existing transformers smaller at same performance: https://twitter.com/arankomatsuzaki/status/1624947959644278786?s=20&t=sWoi47Zz-RRprcyDC-jZog
optimal training data vs parameter count (a la Chinchilla)
the hefty "neural engines" that Apple is continuously making better in their apple silicon
that we may find new architectures that work better for language

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