This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2026, any European country (excluding Russia and its military allies) deploys military personnel in combat roles inside Ukraine, meaning:
Ground forces engage in combat with Russian or Russian-backed forces.
Artillery, air defense, or other military units operate weapons from within Ukraine.
The deployment is officially acknowledged by the respective government or reported by credible sources (BBC, Reuters, The Guardian, Le Monde, Der Spiegel).
It counts even if the deployment is temporary and forces withdraw quickly.
What Does NOT Count:
Russia, Belarus, or any country deploying troops in support of Russia, even if falsely declaring the contrary.
Military advisors, trainers, intelligence officers, or logistics personnel.
Troops deployed for defensive purposes only (e.g., guarding embassies or humanitarian convoys).
Secret/deniable operations unless later confirmed by official sources or major investigative reports published or referenced by at least 3 of the aforementioned publications.
Peacekeeping missions under a non-combat UN mandate.
Resolution Process:
If uncertainty exists regarding a deployment’s combat status, the market will remain open until an official government statement or reliable investigative journalism clarifies the situation, published on more than two major news organizations, ideally across partisan lines, no further than March 2026.
If no such deployment occurs before January 1, 2026, the market resolves NO.
I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Foreign Troops Only
Deployment must involve military personnel from a European country other than Ukraine (in addition to excluding Russia and its military allies).
Ukraine's own troops are explicitly excluded from triggering a YES outcome.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about the "Sky Shield" proposal, the creator clarified the criteria for air defense operations:
European jets flying over Ukraine would only count if they engage in combat within Ukrainian airspace (e.g., intercepting a missile or firing on an enemy aircraft). Mere patrols do not count.
Surface-to-air systems inside Ukraine, operated by European troops, would count if they engage in combat by shooting down aircraft or intercepting missiles.
1,000
3.00@Siebe If Sky Shield refers to European jets flying in protective roles over Ukraine, the market would resolve YES only if those jets engage Russian or Russian-backed forces in combat (e.g., intercepting a missile or firing on enemy aircraft) within Ukrainian airspace, and such engagement is confirmed by at least 3 credible sources or an official statement.
Mere patrols or deterrent overflights, even if conducted inside Ukraine, do not count without combat engagement.
Surface to air systems within Ukraine, operated by European troops as previously defined, and engaging in combat by shooting down planes or intercepting Russian or Russian backed missiles would count.
@JaimeSantaCruz sorry if this is pedantic but i placed my bet under a different assumption. could you tell me where in the description it says that they don't?
@JaimeSantaCruz also i understand that it wasnt the markets intention to predict if ukraine would use any troops. Do manifold markets resolve based on probable intention of the market or what exacly is stated in the description?
@JaimeSantaCruz it wouldn't. thats why im asking if it resolves based on intention or what is stated in the description