(Description generated with AI using manifolds new feature)

Background Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has recently surpassed the Conservative Party in membership numbers. Led by Nigel Farage, Reform UK has explicitly stated its intention to supplant rather than merge with the Conservative Party. There are significant ideological differences between the two parties, with Conservative members viewing Reform UK as substantially more right-wing.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Reform UK and the Conservative Party officially merge into a single political party before August 15, 2029. The merger must be formally announced and approved by both parties' leadership.

The market will resolve NO if:

• No merger occurs by August 15, 2029

• Only a partial alliance or electoral pact is formed

• One party simply absorbs individual members or MPs from the other without a formal merger

Considerations

• Recent polling shows limited appetite for a merger among voters from both parties

• Reform UK's current strategy focuses on a "reverse takeover" of the Conservative Party through gradual absorption of MPs and activists, rather than a formal merger

• The Conservative Party has historically absorbed smaller right-wing parties, but Reform UK's rapid growth and distinct ideological position make this scenario less likely