When will Viktor Orbán's rule end?

Background

Viktor Orbán has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, serving continuously after his party Fidesz won four consecutive parliamentary elections (2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022). His current term is set to last until the next parliamentary elections in 2026. Under his leadership, Hungary has moved toward what critics describe as "illiberal democracy," with significant changes to the constitution, electoral system, and media landscape that have consolidated his power.

Orbán has maintained strong control over Hungary's political system through:

• Constitutional reforms that favor his party

• Strong support in rural areas and among conservative voters

• Control over much of the country's media

• Strategic management of the economy and nationalist messaging

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on when Viktor Orbán permanently ceases to be the Prime Minister of Hungary. The market will resolve to the time period during which Orbán's rule ends, defined as:

• "Before 2026" - If Orbán leaves office before January 1, 2026

• "2026 - 2027" - If Orbán leaves office between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027

• "2028 - 2029" - If Orbán leaves office between January 1, 2028, and December 31, 2029

• And so on for the other time periods

For resolution purposes:

• "Rule" refers to Orbán's position as Prime Minister of Hungary

• Temporary absences due to illness or vacation do not count as the end of his rule

• If Orbán steps down but returns to power within 6 months, his rule will be considered continuous

• If Orbán is removed from power through constitutional means, revolution, death, or resignation, this will count as the end of his rule

If Orbán changes Hungary's political system to assume a different title with equivalent or greater power (e.g., President with expanded powers), his rule will be considered ongoing until he no longer holds that position of power.

Considerations

• Hungary's next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2026, making this a potential inflection point

• The emergence of new opposition figures like Péter Magyar could affect Orbán's political future

• Orbán has consistently outperformed polls and maintained power despite opposition efforts to unseat him

• International factors, including Hungary's relationships with the EU and Russia, could influence domestic politics

• Orbán's health and age (born 1963) may become factors in longer-term predictions