When will Blue Origin reach orbit?
When will Blue Origin reach orbit?
Basic
10
Ṁ2252101
2025
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve when Blue Origin has a successful orbital flight and return to Earth (even if the landing system is not perfect). If Blue Origin dissolves, or stops trying, or etc. this market will resolve to MAX, so if you want to bet NO, that is the same as HIGHER
If not resolving to MAX, market will resolve to YEAR + ((DAY - 1) / length(YEAR))
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In future markets like this, are these bounds appropriate? And should it be in log or linear scale? Comment your thoughts below
@LivInTheLookingGlass The bounds are way too big, which makes it not worth it to adjust it by a year up or down: big investment for almost no payoff. For a market like this I would have made it 2022—2027, and if it's later than that it would resolve to 2027.
But in general binary yes/no markets tend to work better in my experience
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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