Why is this at 50% and an identical question at 80%? Thats the real question!

Because the resolution criteria are decidedly not identical!

Would the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics count as deterministic?

Maybe

qm

@Puggy mwi

@adele but that's the multiverse not the universe. Emergent indeterminism from self-locating uncertainty.

Possible arbitrage opportunity?

(Oh wait, it was reposted below so never mind.)

This will basically resolve randomly according to the whims of some whale in 2030

@TomShlomi Would anyone here object to changing the resolution criteria to either include a clause against blatant manipulation or use a poll instead? Or we could create a new market like that.

@jack I'd pretty strongly prefer making a new market; that would be a pretty big change to this market.

Here, I made a new one that resolves to physicist opinion after we've discovered all the mysteries of the universe that it's possible to discover.

I think your's is substantially different because you're including the multiverse in your definition of the universe

I don't think I can predict who the biggest whale will be in 2030 and which way they'll bet.

@Yev Of course not, it's not deterministic!

@MartinRandall https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.Aerfish.UniverseSplitter&hl=en_US&gl=US (use quantum randomness to decide which way to bet!)

@MartinRandall touche

A narrow definition of universe is no because of quantum. A wide definition is no because of some part of the multiverse running on non-deterministic math.

@MartinRandall I second your first point, but why posit a non-deterministic multiverse?

@BionicD0LPH1N If it has all possible math in it then some of that math is going to be non-deterministic, no?

@jack Same thing here. Our universe is deterministic, even if subjectively we perceive true quantum randomness. I bet yes as a vote and because I think in long term Everett theory will gain the full acceptance it deserves.