Welcome aboard :)

I’ve always found tribalism mysterious, but perhaps that was just because I hadn’t yet found my tribe.

https://benthams.substack.com/p/reflections-on-manifest

Right now you have the market set to close on nov 5th, is that the time period you meant to measure your referrals over?

@ian Yes! That was the plan. I figured it would take me a little bit of time to show people what I've found over here. Twitter is a dark place right now and it's hard to get any reach. But there's a fun group that would love it here, the problem is that Twitter becomes an addiction that feels helpful. It's the market that never resolves.

@LeoGuinanEqPl How is your progress so far? What is within our capacity to help?

@Chumchulum I think all you need to do is keep having fun with me here. I'm showing how much more fun it is here and now I'm getting data on how much I can talk into the void on Twitter vs how much people are actually interesting and unique here. People being people here is the basis of my thesis and I simply need to show it. Now I'm just collecting the data that proves the thesis for sponsors

@Chumchulum maybe you can bet that @KevinBlaw won't watch this short: https://manifold.markets/LeoGuinanEqPl/will-kevinblaw-watch-this-114-short?r=TGVvR3VpbmFuRXFQbA

I'm betting that if enough of us bet that he won't, he will bet on yes and then watch it because there's no reason not to.

@LeoGuinanEqPl If you read this newsletter I wrote about two years ago, you'll understand a lot more of what I'm doing now @Chumchulum https://engineeringgenerosity.substack.com/p/the-paradox-of-discoverability

The Paradox of Discoverability

How do you find the stuff that isn't optimized to be found?

@LeoGuinanEqPl into can bet on whether I will even click on that market to see what the F you are talking about! This is getting so meta!!

@KevinBlaw Sure! https://manifold.markets/LeoGuinanEqPl/will-kevin-click-into-the-market-to?r=TGVvR3VpbmFuRXFQbA

As long as you use this link to share, it will tack on your referral link at the end of the url, and it will be set for signed-out users that click on it. You'll then get a notification that someone signed up to bet on your market if they do convert to a real user.

@LeoGuinanEqPl No referrals yet, my friend.

How are you showing that you got people to leave twitter and join manifold. What’s the criteria?

@TonyBaloney that’s a great question. Can we use @Chumchulum’s referral count?

@LeoGuinanEqPl That will not be enough. You'll have to use the referral counts since market creation of all the people who offered you their ref link in connection with this, including the "which of the links" mentioned below.

@Chumchulum @LeoGuinanEqPl wow. It’s cool to see you two bounce off each other. It’s like you’re of one mind.

@Chumchulum ok so I’m going to need your help understanding things here. I love this level of detail and I just don’t see it yet. Anything you can share about what you see is incredibly helpful for my learning!

@LeoGuinanEqPl You can get your referral link by clicking the Share with friends star, but you can't get anyone else's link unless they gave it to you or it's floating freely. I gave you mine, and you use the balance log to see whether we receive the M1000 from a referral; you'll have to ask other traders on this market for theirs if they're interested in taking part in a recruitment drive.

I think on Manifold you'll find much more support for this idea than your other one. Would you do me a favor and give a few of them my referral link? https://manifold.markets?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ

@LeoGuinanEqPl my ambition is to become a superforecaster while delaying buying M with fiat for as long as possible.

@Chumchulum Let's make that happen. Here's a fun game for you: create a market about how many people actually click your link vs how many make fun of me for screwing up the referral link: https://x.com/leo_guinan/status/1975288274190033013

. I also gave a couple friends instructions on which of the links to deliver to different groups of people and we're gonna see what everyone can predict.

Oh, and I've got some tech that will give you a hand with that "becoming a superforecaster" thing, so stay tuned.

@LeoGuinanEqPl I just saw this, I won't be able to use my market creation bonus again until Sunday. Please vote on the poll I made before I saw

https://manifold.markets/Chumchulum/how-should-i-brainstorm-my-next-mar?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ

Thank you. I began reading "Time Violence" and I'll tell you my full thoughts. Please have the new users invest mana in the markets they believe in, not send it all to their referrers as that would violate TOS. If sent undue amounts of M I will send it back. I'd like you also to commit to this.

@Chumchulum Absolutely! I definitely plan on it. just wanted to splash a little bit of liquidity in at the beginning to make an entrance. I appreciate everyone actually giving me some time and attention while being reasonably skeptical. It's amazing how rare that is.