Wanted to add a new market for the rookies from last season. It’s interesting to track whether or not second-year full-time players experience the “sophomore slump.” Recent examples include Corbin Carroll (5.4 bWAR in his 2023 NL Rookie of the Year campaign to 3.4 bWAR last season) and Steven Kwan (5.6 bWAR in 2022, where he finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting, to 3.6 bWAR in 2023).
It’s not always going to be a complete implosion so much as a regression to the mean, but I’m curious to see who can best beat the expected sophomore slump.
I only added the top 3 vote-getters from the AL and NL in 2024, but any of the remaining five vote getters can be added later. May add liquidity at a later date.
As with other individual player markets, if a two-way player qualifies, the sum of his hitting and pitching bWAR will be summed if he logs a minimum of 54 IP during the regular season.
Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Resolution Update:
Luis Gil’s Participation: If Luis Gil does not play any games, the market may be resolved by assigning him 0.0 WAR, but only if every other player posts below 0.0 WAR in their sophomore season.
Injury vs. Negative WAR: In cases where an injured player (with no games played) might be considered more valuable than an everyday player posting negative WAR, the resolution may be adjusted accordingly.
1,000
3.00First week of 2025 MLB in the books, let's take a look at first week stats before Friday games kick off and skew this:
Paul Skenes, 2 GS, 1.46 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 2 BB, 13 K, 1-0 W/L
Luis Gil, 60-day DL, no stats
Jackson Chourio, 7 GP, 0.781 OPS, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Jackson Merrill, 8 GP, 1.152 OPS, 2 HR, 8 RBI
Colton Cowser, 4 GP, 0.535 OPS, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Austin Wells, 5 GP, 0.997 OPS, 2 HR, 3 RBI
A note about Luis Gil: I will strongly consider resolving a 0.0 WAR for no games played if every other player, while unlikely, posts a below 0.0 WAR in their sophomore season. If an injured player is more valuable than an everyday pitcher or player doing poorly enough to post negative WAR, I'm willing to reoslve this market accordingly.