This market resolves YES if there is a direct military engagement between the armed forces of the United States and Canada before January 20, 2029. Resolution criteria:

• Must involve official government forces (ex. uniformed military, national guard, or police acting in an official capacity, not private militias or individuals)

• Must include exchange of fire or direct combat operations

• Must result in the creation of a wikipedia page, with a table indicating at least 10 total casualties or losses and with the USA and Canada as belligerents on opposing sides, and that page must remain up for at least a week. (ex. this page)

Sources for context:

• Current US-Canada relations: https://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/six-issues-that-will-shape-us-canada-relations-in-2025

• Canadian military readiness: https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/dont-count-on-us-canadas-military-unreadiness/