A global recession is characterized by a significant decline in economic activity across the world, lasting more than a few months. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) monitors global economic conditions and provides assessments. Previous global recessions include the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession.
Details:
Historical Context: Previous recessions and their triggers, such as financial crises, pandemics, and geopolitical events.
Factors to Consider: Economic indicators (GDP growth, unemployment rates), monetary policies, and global trade conditions.
Data Sources: IMF reports, World Bank data, and economic analysis from major financial institutions.
1,000
3.00
Bizarre this is so high... global recessions are precipitated by things like pandemics, world, wars, and once-in-a-century financial disasters (the great recession was the worst downturn since the Great Depression). Baseline odds should be that this happens once per ~25 years, which would put the fair price for this market below 10%.
@jonsimon https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-the-probability-of-a-g-cHDAaZKkQAij9jGZK1WuFw#1
Since 1960: 4/64 = once per 16 years = 8.125% base rate
But that's assuming independence, and the things are somewhat cyclical, with the last being 16 years ago, so <10% seems too low
