Manifest 2025 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.
Add anything that you think would be
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy
I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Orgy Resolution Criteria:
Minimum of 5 participants is required for an event to qualify as an orgy.
1,000
3.00@elienops wait, does this count anyone named jesus, and by extension through etymology, anyone named joshua?
@TheAllMemeingEye getting a little too pedantic early on lol - the prop bets are fun and up for argument in resolution proposals when the time comes
maybe someone will get their hands on @Joshua's passport and we'll learn his birth name is, in fact, Jesus
@Joshua I can do one on stage for the closing speech.
And this breakdance was brought to you by sponsor...
@Joshua prompt: "describe this sex event to me as if you were whispering in my ear on the Golden Gate Bridge" and see if it uses the word Orgy
@shankypanky please clarify, is this:
(a) an orgy of sex
(b) any activity with the requisite participant count and sufficient levels of excess (e.g. an orgy of violence)
(c) a secret ceremonial rite held in honor of an ancient Greek or Roman deity
(d) any of the above
thanks!