Roon is a pseudonymous twitter account who is believed to work at OpenAI.
Roon often tweets silly nonsense.
This market resolves yes if before the end of the year, it is proven to my satisfaction that at least one of these 2024 silly tweets from was actually cool insider information about OpenAI.
Note that it can't be any tweet that has cool insider information, it has to be a nonsense tweet. Roon has definitely communicated insider information in non-nonsense tweets, but I'm talking about the tweets that makes no sense at first glance.
Prime examples:
Also, the information has to be cool to resolve this market to yes. It can't be that the orange tweet is about how the OAI cafeteria stopped serving oranges.
I would prefer that any argument to resolve this market to Yes be posted publicly, but my DMs are also open and I will promise not to share any evidence that is sent to me in private.
As this is subjective, I will not trade except to buy the market down to my prior.
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it's a trick to throw you off the trail while he goes on a Saturday night tweetstorm don't fall for it
good advice (foreboding)
How cool the info should be? If it is just a random output of unreleased LLM in training, how would this resolve?
@ProjectVictory I don't think that's very cool. Hard to define what cool is though, I admit. Maybe something that a journalist would consider a "scoop" and write an article about if they were able to decipher the tweet, or something that a prediction market trader would be able to use to make a substantial profit on.
Open to suggestions of other ways to define coolness though.
If it helps, the purpose of the market is in large part to figure out if it is worth anyone's time to try to figure out what the tweets mean, or if they should just be ignored. I probably wouldn't consider it a valuable use of time to decipher nonsense which was generated by GPT-5.
Interesting theory though!
^Also all nonsense
Ok my strategy of going back through the timeline and pointing out nonsense is immediately failing as I find way too many tweets.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00