Will NASA and SpaceX succeed with its Artemis 3 mission and land on the moon before the end of 2025?
Will NASA and SpaceX succeed with its Artemis 3 mission and land on the moon before the end of 2025?
Basic
15
Ṁ2919
resolved Feb 24
Resolved
NO

NASA plans the first moon landing since Apollo in December 2025. The missions success is dependent on a Starship Human Landing System which will bring the astronauts to the surface and then back up to Orion. Any chance they stay on schedule?

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1y

RESOLVED NO because of yesterdays announcement by NASA that the mission has been postponed.

1y

This market should presumably be (ever so slightly) lower than

https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land

Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?
5% chance. Resolves YES if a human being steps foot on the moon on or before 11:59pm Eastern US time on December 31, 2025. Resolves NO if no human steps onto the moon by then. Orbits don’t count, nor do landings by a lander but no exiting and stepping onto the surface.

@EvanDaniel Yup and the other 4 near identical markets. Here's a complete list.

Multiple choice:

When will humans set foot on the moon again?‌

When will the next Moon landing occur?‌

<2025:

Will a human walk on the moon by the end of 2024NO‌

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2025?NO‌

Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2024?1%‌

‌<2026:

Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?3%‌

Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?2%‌

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026?2%‌

By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?4%‌

Will a country put another flag on the moon by 2026?3%‌

Will NASA and SpaceX succeed with its Artemis 3 mission and land on the moon before the end of 2025?NO‌

<2027:

Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?7%‌

Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?5%‌

Will Astronauts walk on the moon before the end of 2026.5%‌

<2028:

Will a human land on the moon by 2028?15%‌

Will a human land on the moon before 2028?14%‌

2028 or later:

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?45%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?74%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2031?76%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032?80%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2033?82%‌

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