Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 3 years?
Basic
8
Ṁ167
Apr 2
42%
chance
Betting on whether ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF focused on Robotics, Genomics, Next Generation Internet, FinTech, and AI, will Outperform the S&P500 from 4/1/2022 - 4/1/2025
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Ṁ1,000
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S3.00
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@JimKjelland

I think this should be reopened with a close date equal to the end of the window in question.

Thought this was the 5-year bet...adding an additional $M 2 for similar reasons...long timeframe, not worth it.
My bet would be NO just because I think with the post-pandemic crap and now on top of that, global conflict, will drag more R&D focused things down the tubes for a longer timeframe, making the S&P500, more of a broader index outperform more expensive, e.g. R&D intensive stocks. Typically Wall Street does not like top-heavy stocks in more inflationary and uncertain times, they go for more of the cardboard box manufacturers and such. That being said, I'm only willing to pet M$ 1 on that because this ties up my money for 5+ years and I don't even know if Manifold will exist that long. I could make a much larger return on investment trading $1 Manifold bucks again and again over 5 years rather than waiting for 5 years for a $M 1 payout, so it's just not a good bet to even be in.

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