What countries will join the Schengen area before 2030
What countries will join the Schengen area before 2030
Basic
10
Ṁ12322030
99%
Romania
99%
Iceland
99%
Bulgaria
50%
Andorra
50%
San Marino
48%
Ireland
47%
Cyprus
41%
Gibraltar
41%
Albania
34%
Montenegro
10%
UK
Will use https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area as a resolution source. The country can leave the Shengen area later and still resolve yes.
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bought Ṁ223 Iceland YES3mo
Also Iceland can resolve YES because it’s already a member (my mistake, sorry!).
bought Ṁ222 Romania YES
Bulgaria and Romania resolve YES: https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/1/1/romania-bulgaria-join-borderless-schengen-zone-after-13-year-wait
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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