Same market for next year

How is this going to resolve considering it's likely going to be the same number of launches? I am assuming no, bcoz the question explicitly states 'more than'

@notarealuser Correct, same number of launches resolves as No

Vulcan 2 done and 2 National security payloads planned "before end of the year"
but possible solid rocket booster issue on the second launch today.
https://spacenews.com/vulcan-competes-second-flight-despite-srb-anomaly/
"That certification process, if all goes well, could be completed in weeks, although the anomaly with the solid rocket booster could delay that."


Starship 2 done 60 day consultation period re sonic booms larger area so next flight maybe late Nov.

Does 13% chance seem right? Guess it depends how serious you think the SRB issue is likely to be.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/vulcans-second-launch-likely-to-be-delayed-until-at-least-september/