Resolves YES if, in my opinion, a new technology is life-changing before 2030.
Examples of revolutionary inventions from recent history: radio, television, air conditioning, refrigerators, computers, internet, airplanes, satellites, etc.
I believe that there has not been an invention of a similar caliber for the past 15 years, since modern smartphones came out. Some potential game-changers that may cause this market to resolve yes: driverless cars, flying cars, a cure for cancer, CRISPR, significant automation from AI, etc.
I understand this is a bit vague, but as a rule of thumb, if your grandma doesn't know about it then it's not revolutionary enough.
1,000
3.00In general, I am so glad that I live in this time and have such a unique opportunity to observe the development of technology
Anticipating revolutionary technology is both exhilarating and uncertain. We've witnessed groundbreaking innovations like radios and computers, which have reshaped our world. Over the last decade, smartphones have taken the center stage. As for the next big thing, it's a bit hazy. Driverless cars, flying cars, AI automation, and medical marvels like CRISPR hold incredible promise, but the true game-changers often sneak up on us. Speaking of radios, remember the Magnavox era? Exploring Magnavox manual, especially their vintage models, provides a unique glimpse into the tech landscape of bygone days. It's fascinating to see how far we've come.
As for the possibility of a new revolutionary technology by 2030, many factors influence the development of innovation. The development of artificial intelligence, energy technologies, medicine and other industries may bring us completely new opportunities. However, it is difficult to predict exactly which technology will become revolutionary. I am confident that with the efforts of scientists, engineers and innovators, the world will continue to change and improve. Perhaps the 6.7 cummins delete kit, like many other innovations, will find its place in this technological evolution.
I don't think any of those things have affected the average person's life the way smartphones have, either directly or indirectly. If AI can make a human quality book/movie/video game/etc. on its own then that would count. Driverless cars are nowhere near ubiquitous. I don't know about rocket boosters, but if they're like the other 2 examples, then it's not enough.
@ItsMe bets NO and creates wildly arbitrary conditions for the market… I wonder if it will resolve to NO…
Anyway, not so much a complaint to you as manifold as a whole. I just don’t see the value of a completely arbitrary market like this. No insights gained.
@CorySchneider What might be a better way to phrase a market question asking about this?
@cloudprism Tough, and I probably just wouldn’t do it. Generally, avoiding using concepts like “life changing” without defining them.
“Average person” - what does that mean? It is only recently that most ppl have cell phones. Would OP have not counted smart phones as revolutionary until >50% of ppl had them, despite it being obvious how valuable they’d become?
“Significant automation from AI” - creator has defined this as ordering from McDonald’s without humans involved - what does that even mean? You can already order it online. Are they referring to the production of the burger? That’s not AI, that’s automated production and doesn’t require artificial intelligence at all. They’ve had vending machines that produce ramen and other simple foods for decades - does that count?
I just think that prediction markets only have value insofar as they give a probability to something reasonably objective. And if the inevitable resolution comes down to someone who is invested in the answer, all the more unreliable.
1) By average I don't mean it has to literally affect 50% of people. It just has to have a mainstream presence. I gave a cure for cancer as an example, but not even 50% of people get cancer. Again, the grandma test would help here; a grandma might not have a smartphone, but can clearly notice the significance of the technology.
2) By delivery I mean that the customer instructions have to be read, the meal has to be cooked and assembled, and then delivered by a driverless car or something. Whether or not "AI" is needed here is semantic; if it happened, then the market resolves yes.
And yes, there is some vagueness. I made it clear from the beginning that this is a subjective market. If you don't like it you don't have to participate in it. Criticizing it without providing any solution other than to delete it is not helpful at all.
@ItsMe Mainstream presence where? Silicon valley or rural Sierra Leone? I think selecting a geographic target population that needs to be affected would go a long way to make the market criteria more solid.