Will there be a notable book-burning event on a US college campus before 2030?
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Must be intentional. An accidental library fire doesn't count.
A single person burning a few of their own books doesn't count. Must involve several people and a large number of books, somewhere public or semi-public.
Only events after market creation.
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Another related event: In 2022 a USA church did this. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/04/book-burning-harry-potter-twilight-us-pastor-tennessee
@MichaelWheatley Well for one thing, it doesn't actually make it harder for people to access that content.
predictedNO 2y
@IsaacKing Presumably the corollary of that is that burning books that have been digitized also doesn’t make it harder for people to access the content, it’s just symbolic.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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