Will the two "did EA people know about SBF's fraud" markets resolve differently?

Plus

Ṁ2404

Jan 1

chance

ALL

/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2023-will-substantial

/EgeErdil/will-substantial-evidence-emerge-by

If those two markets both resolve to YES or both to NO, this market resolves NO. If one resolves to YES and the other resolves to NO, this market resolves YES. If either one of them resolves N/A, this market resolves N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Effective Altruism

Get

1,000

and

3.00

3 Comments

22 Holders

53 Trades

Sort by:

This obviously can't be higher than the sum of the two markets it's based on, and in general should be much lower than that, since they're presumably correlated.

Both markets miss the point
They knew he was a fraud
It's why they chose to annoint
A criminal and applaud

predictedNO

For the current 26 percent figure to make sense at the current percentages for the two markets, their outcomes need to be at best very loosely correlated. Or stated another way, you have to think the odds of YES resolution for both are very unlikely.

Related questions

Related questions