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https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1612253613333561344/photo/1

This photo appears to contain two poles, one clearly visible in the foreground. Citations:

Merriam Webster:

Pole: a long slender usually cylindrical object (such as a length of wood).

ChatGPT:

I believe this is conclusive.

Any counterarguments before I resolve this to YES?

@IsaacKing Those are indeed identifiable poles.

@IsaacKing she posted two poles, not a pole.

Maybe we need a poll of poles to resolve this.

@MartinRandall A pole is contained in the image; whether there are any other poles is irrelevant. I would be interested to see the result of a poll of poles, but it won't affect the outcome of this market.

@IsaacKing Are you still intending on closing this out early? It has been a week without any real counterarguments.

@IsaacKing damnit

@IsaacKing Why was this in US Politics? Please don't forget to fix AI's mistakes when you create markets.

Do people from Poland count? How about celestial poles, poles of astronomical bodies, or magnetic poles?

@StevenK Those all sound like poles to me.

@IsaacKing did you know that water molecules have magnetic poles? And the human body is mostly water. So any naked photo of Aella should suffice.

@MartinRandall The pole must be a noticible part of the image.

@MartinRandall It's almost too easy to find technicalities to resolve YES on.

@StevenK Too esoteric. I doubt anyone looking at such a picture would go "yup, this contains a pole".

@IsaacKing @EliezerYudkowsky is fond of saying things about how a sufficiently smart AI should be able to look at a still image from a camera and derive the laws of physics. So really this is mostly a function of when you consider the observer to be, and whether you expect a future AI overlord to someday go trawling through @Aella nudes, which objectively seems to be of higher likelihood than other baseline nudes on the internet given social circle overlap and all.

@EdwardKmett Observer must have normal human values, and this is happening around the end of January, so I hope you can get your AI aligned by then.

@IsaacKing This is the worst story hook ever.

@IsaacKing

There are a few ways in which one could argue Aella posted a pole in this tweet:

1: The photo on the right is Jeff Goldblum as Ian Malcolm. Wikipedia says of Goldblum:

His family is from Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, with roots in Starobin and Zolochiv.

These places are in Belarus and Ukraine, respectively, but I believe they were both historically part of Poland.

2: Fox Mulder is played by David Duchovny, who is also an American descendant of Polish Jews.

3: The character Abed Nadir, according to Wikipedia, "is born to a Palestinian father from Gaza and a Polish American mother", and is fluent in Polish.

I'm not sure whether you'd count any of these people as "poles" for market resolution purposes. I'm also not sure whether you'd count them as having been "posted", though I would argue that at least Goldblum was posted.

@StevenK Points for effort, but those are not clear poles.

@IsaacKing I don't suppose that in this pixel art, the table leg counts as a pole, or that the Moon's north pole or south pole is noticeable enough?

@StevenK Nope. Someone would need to be able to look at the image without the context of this market and have a reasonable chance of thinking to themselves "that's a pole".

@IsaacKing How about this?

@StevenK apparently the stick that holds up an umbrella is called a shaft, not a pole.

@MartinRandall Hmm, is it?

@StevenK Proof!

@StevenK Was that posted on Twitter?

@IsaacKing yes