https://twitter.com/i/status/1735083523050975277

>Resolution date: 2100
>
>[...] this resolves to NO [if we've] explored >90% of the Milky Way and have not found any signs of other spacefaring life [...]

Presumably you don't mean to imply that this be done in person, yes? Is your proposal that this be done with telescopes with resolution higher than the JWST, eg the Nautilus Deep Space Observatory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautilus_Deep_Space_Observatory?

Because I don't think that it would be remotely plausible for humans to systematically cover 90% of 8 trillion cubic light-years of space (the volume of the Milky Way galaxy) and visit in person each and every planet, catalogue every rock, etc within the next 100 years, let alone the next 80. With the sort of propulsion systems that we have available now (typically approx 0.1c, or (very) optimistically max 0.5c relative to ordinary space), this would likely take tens of thousands of years to achieve. At the very least.

So presumably either

1) you must mean something like a next generation space telescope as I've indicated above or

2) this particular NO resolution criterion is deliberately rhetorical.

Wouldn’t mind-altering technology also be very advanced tech? I guess I don’t quite understand why you excluded that explicitly as that outcome is almost as interesting/scary as actual UFOs, if not more so

@Ansel It is, but it's not what this market is asking about.

You should clarify whether this question refers to the UFO/UAPs observed so far, or future ones as well. I'm assuming the former based on

We have a clear explanation for all outstanding credible claims. (e.g. the "tic tac" UFO that several people claim to have seen at close range.)

But it's not clear whether this mean outstanding claims at the time of resolution, vs now.

This market is only about UFOs observed prior to market creation. Though of course if we later find a new UFO that is such advanced technology, that would be strong evidence towards some of the earlier ones having been as well.

@IsaacKing Thanks.

Certainly if it looks similar then that would be strong evidence. But I think it's more likely that if we see an alien spaceship that it doesn't look anything like the UFOs.

So I'm curious as to why the market at https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/what-is-going-on-with-david-gruschs-de3add9e7579 doubles the value of this market. I think it's because many people aren't clearly thinking through all the alternatives about what's going on now.

It's interesting how at first this topic seems like it's a bunch of hoaxes and garbage that people could just be making up. But when Grusch took the stand, he forced a choice of outcomes, all of which are ridiculously improbable, but one of which must to be true. While I won't bet on the linked market, I do see this one as a good proxy that I can arbitrage with YES, and this is coming from someone who definitely hopes that the answer is NO.

There clearly is a response bias when people are presented with a list of choices instead of disconnected options.

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

There are a lot of UFO markets, but this is the first with mutually exclusive choices and no arbitrarily-selected timetable to try to explain DoD whistleblower David Grusch's claims. Intelligence officer David Grusch stated on July 26, 2023 in a hearing under oath that the US government possessed craft of non-human origin. He claimed that there is an ongoing government conspiracy to cover up research on these objects that is misappropriating taxpayer funds. The claims led Chuck Schumer to add over 50 pages of text in the National Defense Authorization Act asserting perhaps the most sweeping use of eminient domain in US history. The bill, which was passed by the Senate, mandates, among other things, contractors turn over these craft and create a scientific committee to evaluate evidence of non-human intelligence. To illustrate how strange and improbable any outcome to the situation is, I created a market that shows there are only four ways that Grusch's claims can resolve. It is intended that the market MUST resolve to one of these four choices with a lower number overriding a higher number; if I have the wrong wording or a logic error, please correct me in a comment. The market resolves to Non-human intelligence if non-human intelligence exists in any form, and that intelligence has influenced any person, animal, or event on Earth at any time before July 26, 2023. A single sighting or even "ESP feeling" caused by the NHI would be sufficient. NHI is defined as a phenomenon not created by humans born before July 26, 2023 that can achieve goals with at least the capability of GPT-3.5. #2, #3, or #4's truth are not relevant. The market resolves to Advanced human technology if UFOs are the result of wildly advanced technology created by humans who were born before July 26, 2023 and which has been kept secret from the public for 85 years. It requires #1 to be false and #3 and #4 are not relevant. The market resolves to Massive fraud if contractors and/or officials have been creating fake UFO videos and spreading misinformation for 85 years as a method to discredit investigations and siphon taxpayer dollars for unauthorized or nonexistent work. It requires #1 and #2 to be false and #4 is not relevant. The market resolves to Multiple counts of perjury if Grusch and/or the 40 witnesses that reported to him are lying and the Intelligence Community Inspector General's conclusion that the claims were "credible and urgent" was not true, because #1, #2, and #3 are all false. If, however, they are lying to distract from fraud or human weapons, #4 is not the resolution. There may never be actual indictments for this resolution; other proof (such as messages indicating the witnesses were planning a publicity stunt) would suffice. The market will remain open until the scientific community widely accepts one of the choices beyond a reasonable doubt, using the legal definition of the term. A "reasonable doubt" does not imply that ALL doubt must be eliminated in the lower numbered options, just that it would be unreasonable for a person to conclude a lower number is true after enough evidence comes to light. It is intended that this market coalesce to the true probabilities of each of these options without the odds being artificially lowered by time. There are many other great markets for those who want an earlier end date with a lower standard of proof. Gemini, which updates training date nightly (or whatever the frontier model is at the time) will be used to resolve the market if there is disagreement. It will resolve N/A if I made a mistake in making the choices mutually exclusive and I cannot correct the text without being unfair to people who have previously bet.

That market is badly formatted because Grusch is claiming Aliens, not advanced human technology. He could be perjuring himself while there are also some fancy drones out there that can fool multiple sensors.

And I can't be bothered to bet 1000s of mana keeping the aliens option at 1% where it belongs.

If anyone wants to sell their NO, or buy a lot of YES, I've laid some NO limits for you.

resolves to NO once we have a clear explanation for all outstanding credible claims

Is there a list of "outstanding credible claims" somewhere?

I'd be more inclined to bet if this didn't feel like a market that's going to have weird goalpost moving going on, with a decent chance of just never resolving because some of the claims are going to be persistently unclear.

A companion market of "will all outstanding credible claims have explanations by $date" might help.

@EvanDaniel I've edited the description to add more NO resolution criteria, that seem reasonable?

Hey now that loans are 4% how about we move this down to the low single digits it should be?

@Joshua Why should it be low single digits? Many people are publicly committing perjury as protected whistleblowers if you are right. And the intelligence community inspector generals have very publicly stated they disagree with you after actually seeing all of Grusch's evidence we haven't seen yet. So why so confident??

I'm not claiming to have a huge amount of confidence myself.

I just think that markets like this are propped up by people betting yes because they expect them to be confirmed in the next few years, while NO voters stay away because they expect things to remain unclear and this market to not resolve until after we're all dead.

The increased loan feature gives much stronger incentive to correct long-term markets though, so I expect this market to go down.

If I were still active on Manifold I would happily bet this down to <5%. You folks are leaving so much mana on the table here.

I would buy more if I thought it would ever resolve "no". I think every outstanding UFO claim is ultimately something mundane, but I also think it's unlikely that we'll find a clear explanation for every single outstanding credible claim, especially ones along the lines of "I saw something weird one time". Probably some of them will remain without explanation.

If this article has any basis in fact, this market should resolve to "yes". https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/

@TurnipPotato That article is the biggest nothingburger of 2023. It contains literally zero proof of anything. https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com/p/the-ufo-craze-was-created-by-government

I think the main crux here is how "advanced" the secret earth technology would have to be. If it's something that's like 5 years ahead of publicly known flying tech, then I have this at 80%. If it's more like 50 years (of 20th century tech advancement speed, ignoring agi) ahead, then I have this at 2% or something.

@Nikola "hover with no apparent source of thrust" puts this at really low probability, however the other two make it not that improbable (surviving 0.01 g more than the best known plane seems not that hard but seems to be outside of the sprit of the question, and GPT-4 says some aircraft already don't use control surfaces)

@Nikola "insane" speeds would imply performance much better than known SOTA. Maybe we should operationalize this as "being able to fly at more than 10x the speed of known aircraft" or something similar.

@Nikola ask chatgpt about quantum mechanics. Then quantum chemistry and properties, periodic table deviations, and current phenomena attributed to quantum effects.

@EdwardYu it's only a feeling I have through a long pattern of waiting and watching how information develops but I think the rules of quantum mechanics make some of these "feats of high technology" possible.

@EdwardYu Would be cool if you made a market about that :)

@EdwardYu ask any advanced chemist about quantum phenomena regarding the periodic table and they will allude to mysterious forces that chemistry and physics has yet to explain. Information and how information is resolved seems to be a common thread When trying to describe phenomena at the electron level or smaller

@Nikola already there.

@EdwardYu oh interesting, I was thinking more something like "will UFOs turn out to be aircraft using publicly unknown breakthroughs in quantum physics"

@Nikola also made. I try to leave a bit a room in these markets. I'm still unsure of how to phrase market questions.