Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2028?
Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2028?
Basic
5
Ṁ3082028
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Other resolution criteria than time are the same as in the corresponding Metaculus market.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13785/first-occupation-of-lunar-gateway/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?
24% chance
Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2030?
19% chance
Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2035?
42% chance
Will Lunar Gateway be cancelled before 2026?
43% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2025?
18% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
4% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch later than 2025?
80% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2028?
75% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2029?
86% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?
63% chance