Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

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Criteria for Resolution:

1. Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab. The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.

2. Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind. As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field. The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.

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Does ScarJo’s absolute murder of sama count? 😂😂😂

10mo

Don't make this a prize market, or else this turns into an assassination market 😉

Does it count if e.g. A CEO is murdered by her husband in a domestic violence incident unrelated to her being the CEO of a major lab? What about if a CEO gets into a bar fight and dies as a result?

10mo

@Mad For the sake of consistency, yes. The probability of such cases is very small compared to the probability that this market has or will ever have. Removing such cases will not change the market probabilities but only add confusion.

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

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