Fewer US programming jobs 1 year from March 13, 2025? [Tegmark / Ng bet]
48
Ṁ53532026
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If bet resolves publicly, this question resolves like the bet.
If the bet does not resolve publicly, I will listen to both sides and make my best effort at resolving justly.
I will not trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@HenriThunberg What roles are counted as programming jobs? I'm curious about new roles like Prompt Engineer and where this fits. Or is it SWE and Programmers only?
https://www.adpresearch.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-software-developer/ According to this the trend has been downwards since 2020.
@DarklyMade That only looks at US jobs. It could be explained by a shift to outsourcing to cheaper overseas locations after the pandemic made everyone remote anyway and it worked fine.
Related questions
Related questions
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
93% chance
(AGI programmer automation) Will my market comp be <3x a median construction worker in April 2025.
3% chance
Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?
50% chance
Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?
2% chance
Federal government employment decreases by >500,000 before January 2026
17% chance
Will there be more professional programmers at the end of 2024 than there were in 2023?
90% chance
Of the top 18 jobs in the US in the year 2022, which one will be first to lose at least 1/2 of its workers?
Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?
51% chance
Will some U.S. actors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
56% chance
Will software Web developers be a lower percentage of the workforce in the US in 2030 compared to 2022 ?
69% chance