Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
Plus
40
Ṁ28182031
36%
Waymo
33%
Tesla
19%
7%
BYD
1.4%
Zoox
1.3%
Toyota
1.1%
Apple
Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.
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@DavidFWatson same question. China already has self-driving taxi between cities (Shenzhen-Guangzhou)
If level of autonomy doesn't matter, shouldn't GM or Toyota be higher than Tesla? GM and Toyota drive cars drive far more miles per year than Teslas.
@Gigacasting If "level of autonomy" doesn't matter, what does this question have to do with self-driving at all? I should buy GM just because they sell the most generic cars.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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