What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?
What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?
Plus
8
Ṁ19652029
5%
9-0
8%
8-1
33%
7-2
43%
6-3 (balance as of 2024)
5%
5-4 or lower
5%
What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?
Resolves based on the number of Republican elected justices to Democratic elected justices as of January 20, 2029 (even if the inauguration does not happen on that date).
I will create more options (from the "Other" category) if there will likely not be nine justices as of that date. If a justice "changes party" in a notable way (for example, makes a public announcement, or consistently votes with justices from the other party on partisan decisions), they will be considered to have swapped parties.
Resolves N/A if the US Supreme Court no longer exists.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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