Market Description: Will Nintendo use Large Language Models (LLMs) to script dialogue for Luigi or Waluigi in a video game before 2033? This market explores the ironic possibility of the 'Waluigi Effect' occurring in reality with these iconic characters.

Understanding the Waluigi Effect: The "Waluigi Effect" is an observed phenomenon in LLMs, where training a model to satisfy a specific desirable trait makes it easier to elicit the opposite trait​​. Named after the Mario franchise's Waluigi, this effect humorously suggests that attempts to create a compliant Luigi could inadvertently lead to a rebellious Waluigi-like output.

Irony in Nintendo's Character Development: This market playfully considers whether Nintendo's potential use of LLMs for character dialogue might lead to actual instances of the Waluigi Effect, where the LLMs, in trying to capture Luigi's honest and reliable nature, might end up generating contrasting, Waluigi-like dialogue. It's a unique blend of AI unpredictability and iconic video game character lore.

Implications for Game Design: Using LLMs in game development raises interesting questions about character consistency and narrative direction. The risk of LLM-generated dialogue deviating from established character traits, due to the Waluigi Effect, adds a layer of unpredictability and irony in game storytelling​​.

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves positively if Nintendo confirms using LLMs for Luigi or Waluigi dialogue in a game released before 2033.

References:

• "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" on LessWrong​​.