Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Barack Obama publicly announces his candidacy for a third term as President of the United States before January 1, 2028. It resolves NO if he does not make such an announcement by that date.

Background

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, states: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." Barack Obama served two full terms as President from 2009 to 2017, which would constitutionally prohibit him from being elected to a third term.

Considerations

For this market to resolve YES, Obama would need to either:

1. Announce a candidacy that challenges the constitutionality of the 22nd Amendment

2. Announce a candidacy following a successful repeal of the 22nd Amendment

There have been occasional proposals to repeal the 22nd Amendment, but none have gained significant traction in Congress. There is currently no indication that Obama has plans to seek a third term or challenge the constitutional term limits.

• Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Announcement Seriousness Clarification:

  • An announcement made unseriously, facetiously, or as a political statement may count as a valid announcement (YES) if there is sufficient ambiguity regarding its lack of seriousness.