By which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?
By which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?
Plus
35
Ṁ52612030
7%
2025
29%
2026
43%
2027
52%
2028
70%
2029
Resolved
NO2024
Either private ownership, or available as robotaxis etc.
Level 4 or better; if a human at the wheel is required, it won't count for this market
Limited trials may or may not count at my discretion; a service with a waitlist like Waymo had until recently will be counted as long as it's possible for a normal person to get on said waitlist.
The year when they first become available and all years after it that have been added as answers on the market will resolve YES.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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