This market is wild right now

@traders What's the right way to count "Psyche arrives"? Should we require successful orbital insertion? Any flyby? Flyby with images and/or data?

I'd say captured by its gravity? That's how I know I've arrived somewhere when I go interplanetary, tbh. So not just flyby, otherwise taking a plane to fly over a country would be the same as visiting that country.

Works for me!

For "None of the above" the Starliner, Artemis, and New Glenn programs all have to be cancelled and Psyche has to miss the asteroid, right?

Hmm. My probablities of each fail:

P(Starliner) = 0.35

P(Psyche) = 0.02

P(Artemis) = 0.12

P(NewGlenn) = 0.05

P(all) = 0.35*0.02*0.12*0.05 = 0.000042

Though I'm treating them as independent. If nuclear war breaks out, they'll all move together (Psyche likely needs a trajectory adjustment to reach the asteroid).

Still, I think I could safely bet no. Not that it'd be a good investment, once opportunity costs are considered.

For "None of the above" the Starliner, Artemis, and New Glen programs all have to be cancelled and Psyche has to miss the asteroid, right?

Correct. It's there for completeness, not because it's a likely result. I'm not a fan of N/A results, and especially not on markets where we already have four options. A fifth doesn't hurt things much.

AIUI, Psyche will need a couple mid-course corrections, almost certainly including one after the Mars flyby.

I suppose there are other ways a launch could fail to happen, as well. Apollo 1 never launched, but later missions did.

Given that (AFAIK) there aren't yet numbered New Glenn missions, I don't think that makes sense for that option -- we're talking about the 15th flight, not a specific mission with the number 15 in its name.

Let me know if that interpretation seems wrong or you have suggestions for improvement.

What counts as Artemis III here?

I think the best answer is just "does NASA call it Artemis III". (Artemis 3 or other styling is also fine.) Other suggestions welcome, though. My main intent here is to replicate the twitter poll.