Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?
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Dec 31
28%
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  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.

    • Intraday Prices: Any price movements within the trading day will not be considered.

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@Ernie Is this "Close" or does a point during "Intraday" count?

@EBSnyder From previous similar markets my conclusion has been that we should use only close to close, i.e. the close on one day to the close on the next day. That's because for the calculations we want it not to matter if we calculate day by day or month by month.

For questions related to the last momentary price, I think most people don't care as much about that in general, and it's also more manipulable and also harder to track. So this and all my S&P style markets are going to be based on the close times of the interval mentioned.

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