IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 12 politicians will keep power longer? The first six "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%
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Plus
11
Ṁ2940
2029
82%
Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984
81%
Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953
77%
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952
70%
Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954
47%
Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962
44%
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950
44%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954
43%
Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963
32%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978
31%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939
31%
Donald Trump, US President, 1946
18%
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

All the options are priced separately. For traders who aren't familiar: if we knew the exact future, the total of all options would sum to 600% (proper pricing would be: the 6 survivors will be 100% each and the 6 to be out first will be 0%).

As these guys lose power, the first 6 to lose power (by any means, retirement, leaving office, etc) will have their price resolved to 0%. When there are only 6 left, the remaining ones will have their price resolved to 100%.

Note that to lose power they have to really have stepped down from their current job (or taken a less significant, same country job), not just lost an election. i.e. if there is a gap then they aren't "out" until they actually don't have the power. Quitting being president and then moving on to being an ambassador or head of supreme court while someone else takes over the big job is considered being "out".

For medical issues, (if the day-to-day operations of the country are handed to someone else for at least 7 days, or the leader has disappeared for at least 30 days), and there is clear indication & belief by the economist magazine that the person is dead or gone, then they will be considered "out".

Note: Trump is considered to be the US president now, even though he's not quite inaugurated yet, for the purpose of deciding this market. i.e. if he fails to be inaugurated or is, but then stops being president, he'll be "out".

Note, that losing power but then being reinstated >7 days later either by coup or reelection or other, still means you were "out".

Deadline will be extended if necessary.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

lol all the odds added up to way under 600%, someone must've missed the description

reposted

this could be a fun one, everybody!

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