Will the Supreme Court overturn any of Griswold, Lawrence, or Obergefell by 2040?
Will the Supreme Court overturn any of Griswold, Lawrence, or Obergefell by 2040?
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> In future cases, we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell. Because any substantive due process decision is “demonstrably erroneous,” we have a duty to “correct the error” established in those precedents. ~ Clarence Thomas
This question will resolve to yes if the Supreme court overturns any of the aforementioned rulings.
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Does the court have to expressly state that one of these cases is overruled for this to resolve YES? How about if one of these rulings is significantly narrowed? Or could it resolve YES even if the court merely makes a ruling in a future case that's inconsistent with a faithful application of one of these precedents?
It'd be super helpful to have a few sentences on what the effects of overturning those rulings would be!
You cannot reasonably use their words as evidence they will not, considering they also said this about Roe
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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