What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2025?
What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2025?
Plus
10
Ṁ12362026
38%
SAE 2
23%
SAE 3
32%
SAE 4
7%
SAE 5
For at least one publicly available model still being produced
Can be publicly used at this level
In the USA or Europe
Evalution is not well-defined but I will use the best combination of Tesla's claims + US/other country national or state administrators judgments
If the US, the area it is approved for is evaluated based on the entire state. (i.e. if one road is approved for SAE 4 but the rest of the state is SAE 3, then that counts as SAE 3)
But primarily will use actual accepted user behavior (i.e. if you can legally drive in that region at that SAE)
https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html
Currently Tesla is at level 2.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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