Will the UK experience major riots in 2025, on a similar scale to those experienced in 2024?
Will the UK experience major riots in 2025, on a similar scale to those experienced in 2024?
Plus
22
Ṁ2222Dec 31
30%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background
The UK experienced significant riots in 2024, sparked by anti-immigration sentiments. These riots involved violent clashes between far-right groups, counter-protesters, and police forces.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if at least one of the following occurs in the UK during 2025:
Multiple days of violent protests involving 1000+ participants
Property damage exceeding £1 million in a single riot event
Deployment of riot police in multiple cities simultaneously
Declaration of a state of emergency due to civil unrest
Multiple injuries to police officers or civilians during riot events
The market will resolve NO if none of these criteria are met during 2025.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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