I'm an 18 year old male freshman in university with a high school cross-country 5k PR of 18:18 (equivalent to approximately 17:20 track or 17:40 road). My 2-mile PR (10:46) predicts a 17:17 track 5k (VDOT). I ran these times roughly 2 years ago while competing in high school. Currently, my Garmin predicts a 21:22 5k, which I think is a fairly accurate prediction, though Garmin has typically overestimated my speed in the past.

I train far less than I used to, and I have gotten much slower. But now, to achieve peak shape (sub-18:18), I plan to run at least 5 days per week, targeting a minimum of 30 miles weekly by June and employing using lactate threshold training methods. Training consistency has previously been a challenge for me, though, as seen on my Strava (https://www.strava.com/athletes/45805350).

Resolution Criteria:

• I commit to running at least two all-out 5k time trials or races during the market period.

• Trials or races will be recorded on Strava but will resolve using Garmin Connect's official 5k split, since Strava's is sometimes slightly off.

• If conducted on a track or official race, the official or measured 5000m time will override my watch’s measurement.

• If fewer than two attempts are made and recorded, this market resolves as N/A.

• Multiple attempts allowed; fastest recorded 5k determines market resolution.

• Multiple outcomes may resolve YES simultaneously (e.g, a sub-16:59 outcome resolves all slower outcomes as YES, a 21:01 resolves all outcomes NO.)
  
  

Strava data is live, so there will be an edge to people who follow my Strava. Insider trading restrictions apply: I will only trade YES shares, never NO, and only within 2-4 hours after my weekly update to maintain fairness. I will not disclose any information that is not in a comment to anyone who has any chance of trading on this market.