Circuit breakers halt stock market trading when the S&P 500 index falls sharply from the previous day’s close, to prevent panic selling. According to Investor.gov, a 7% drop triggers a 15-minute halt (Level 1), a 13% drop triggers another halt (Level 2), and a 20% drop stops trading for the rest of the day (Level 3). Circuit breakers can only trigger between 9:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. ET.
Recent example: On March 9, 2020, the S&P 500 triggered a halt shortly after opening amid COVID-19 fears.
Resolution criteria:
This market resolves YES if a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 circuit breaker halts trading on any U.S. stock exchange (e.g., NYSE or NASDAQ) between the time this question is posted and 4pm EDT on April 11th, 2025. It resolves NO if no halt is triggered during that time.
1,000
3.00@cowgoesmoo What is your data source? SPY seems to be showing different movement than the market index itself today
Tomorrow's a new day. China tariffs up from 34% to 84%, ad valorem 30%->90% plus tripled the duty postage fees.
Lmao.
S&P 500 is now basically flat d/d. A lot of things could happen, there's clearly a ton of uncertainty, but the huge drop that people were anticipating based on futures and foreign markets hasn't materialized.
@Sketchy ok 20% was way too high but now I'm tempted to take a YES position at 3%. What if Trump decides to put the tariffs back on tomorrow? We saw a 7% spike today taking them off, could just as easily drop down an equal amount.
@Sketchy Attempted to reply with a limit order, but seems Manifold still hasn't fixed the bug where it doesn't show up. Anyway, NO limit order at 5% if you're interested.
Guess I feel like despite Trump's unpredictability, two trading days isn't much time and the circuit breakers didn't trip despite the chaos so far. Very low probability seems right to me.
But maybe I'll be punished for my hubris betting on the modal outcomes for minuscule profit one of these days.
@chrisjbillington I think 6% sounds about right to me so I won't take you up on most of your order unless I can negotiate you down, but I just sold the rest of my stake into it.
I sold based upon a market rally based of news that Trump was supposedly considering a 90 day pause to the tariffs.
Apparently that was fake news which literally just came from some random twitter user?
What a world we live in huh
@Jony i did too (we only lost 13 mana (we tank those)). i hadn't even seen the news yet, but when the market started rallying i figured if it didn't happen today it wouldn't happen this week. (that remains to be seen), but crazy thing is since the headlines have now CORRECTLY reported that tarrif pause is fake... the markets haven't replummeted!
i think that fake headline could have saved the circuit breaker tripping lmaooo
@No_uh the way i see it, markets closing higher today actually increases odds of a circuit breaker later in the week. more room to drop
@NeoMalthusian If the S&P drops 7% or more in a single day, the NYSE pauses all trading for 15 minutes to try and prevent a death spiral from panic selling.
@No_uh Manifold didn’t do it automatically for me this time. So I prompted Grok with:
“Draw the stock market hitting a circuit breaker with a Grue from Zork showing its slavering fangs as it watches with a stock trading graph in the background.”
I don’t know where the phone came from. This was my other option.
I think we’re more likely to see a limit up. a reversal from trump would send spy flying, so every day without a reversal is small evidence valuations should be lower
ie high probability of “small” dips, with low probability of a huge spike
plus monday & friday are usually highest vol and spy is only down 3% premarket
otoh i have no clue what im talking about
